To be on thin ice of “formulas” or mathematical calculation

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An equal sign in mathematics was invented by the Welshman Robert Record in 1557, and finally introduced it to the formulas by the Saxon Gottfried Leibniz. In mathematics, it denotes a simple statement of fact or conditional operators.

For example, if the variable F (sht) = capitulation, then …

Despite the optimistic assessment in the European Union, the signing of the “Steinmeier formula” in certain circles of Ukraine did not provoke positive.

In recent days, it has become commonplace that Russia has received additional leverage, having obtained from Kiev consent to the local elections in the Donbas, which Moscow will organize as it needs, and will also achieve recognition of their “democracy” in the OSCE.

A noticeable communication failure in the work of the Guarantor, together with his Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which resulted in unprepared public opinion, led to the demarches of the parliamentary factions in the Verkhovna Rada, the condemnation of the regional councils and the splash of protests on the streets of the capital.

Over time, the degree of emotions decreased, giving way to a balanced analysis, which is necessary to do.

Firstly, for the prevention of the possible surrender of the interests of Ukraine (and such a threat exists, both hypothetically conscious in nature, so theoretically “by inexperience”).

Secondly, in order to prevent undermining of internal political stability and further escalation of protest moods in Ukraine, what the Kremlin, as well as certain political forces and radical organizations of our country are primarily interested in.

As a result, pickets and torches on Maidan and Bankovaya, an appeal for October 6 at the veche, as well as possible riots on October 14.

It should be noted that the high mobilization of Ukrainians is based on an implacable attitude towards possible compromises with Moscow. This is confirmed by the survey of the sociological group “Rating” – 68% of Ukrainians unconditionally consider Russia as an aggressor country. Hence the close and critical attention of society to the initiatives of the new government.

In addition, the intensification of protests in Kiev is taking place against the background of the impeachment procedure of President Donald Trump that began in the USA, as well as the possible start of the same procedure in the UK against Prime Minister Boris Johnson. All this gives the Ukrainian events a certain element of democracy and decisiveness – as is customary in developed countries.

So what does the “Steinmeier formula” approved in Minsk really mean?

Ukraine agreed that a special procedure for local government would be temporarily in effect at the time of the election. And if they are carried out in accordance with all standards, this procedure will be established on an ongoing basis.

In this regard, the following is important:

The order and modality of holding elections in the occupied territories is determined not by the Minsk agreements and not by the “Steinmeier formula”, but by the Constitution of Ukraine and a separate law, the development of which the Verkhovna Rada has not officially begun – today there are only a few ways to build it.

The document signed by Leonid Kuchma does not contain Ukraine’s obligations to give the ORDLO “special status” and implement the “formula” in Ukrainian legislation. Also, no time frame is specified.

OSCE standards prohibit the holding of elections in territories where foreign occupation forces are located.

Regardless of when a new law is adopted on the special status of certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, it must comply with Articles 1 and 2 of the Constitution of Ukraine (on sovereignty, independence, unitarity, as well as integrity and inviolability), as well as other laws Ukraine, international standards and principles of universal, equal, free and transparent elections.

The law “On the Special Procedure for Local Self-Government in Certain Districts of Donetsk and Lugansk Regions”, which has been in force from 2015 to today, provides that its main provisions enter into force only if, during the elections, the withdrawal of all illegal armed formations, military equipment, and militants was ensured and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine, as well as illegal interference in the election process was not allowed.

These norms can be rephrased differently.

Elections in the Donbass will be held and will be recognized as held only if, according to the laws of Ukraine and under the control of Ukraine, the ORDLO will:

 

  1. a) the principles of political pluralism and multi-party system have been observed, electoral districts and commissions have been created (from representatives of Ukrainian parties);

 

  1. b) voter lists have been compiled (without citizens of the Russian Federation and “L / DPR”);

 

  1. c) the legality of the registration of candidates has been observed (without a criminal record and not under investigation);

 

  1. d) free agitation, security of the work of the media and foreign observers (not only Russian ones) are ensured, the work of Ukrainian television and radio broadcasting is resumed;

 

  1. e) free voting was organized and the will of the internally displaced persons was ensured (not at gunpoints);

 

  1. f) an honest and transparent vote count was conducted (not in the traditions of Rosstat);

 

  1. g) a legal procedure has been established for appealing against violations and voting results (not in the Lefortovo court).

It should be noted that non-compliance with at least one of these points makes the election illegitimate. And this means that the “formula” is only the first step in a very long and difficult distance.

So are there any signs of the surrender of national interests in the actions of our government?

Let us recall that we did not hear well beyond the loud cries of “surrender.”

“Elections can be held only according to Ukrainian law, after the withdrawal of foreign troops and subject to the establishment of Ukraine’s control of the state border. There will be no elections at gunpoint ”, – a briefing by President V. Zelensky, 10/01/2019.

“Not a single“ red line will be crossed in the new law “On the Special Procedure for Local Self-Government in the Ordlo” Amnesty is one of the “red lines” through which Ukraine does not intend to cross ”, – V. Zelensky, 10/03/2019.

“The timing of the withdrawal of the Russian military from the Donbass will be discussed in the” Norman format “, but this should happen before the local elections in the Donbass,” – V. Zelensky, 03.10.2019.

“The bill will be publicly discussed,” – V. Zelensky 10/03/2019.

“The bill will not be put to a referendum,” – Chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee B. Yaremenko, 10/04/2019.

“In the actions of Kiev there is no hint of surrender to the Russian Federation,” – leader of the “Servant of the People” faction D. Arahamia, 10/03/2019.

Yes, we may fear a devastating turn of events for Ukraine, we may not even trust the President and the “Servants of the people.”

But there is no reason to blame the current government for surrendering to Russia!

Summing up, we can say that the signing of the “Steinmeier formula” does not mean the drift of the Ukrainian government towards Russia and the conclusion of an agreement with the aggressor on its terms.

In fact, the “formula” not only opens the way for solving the Donbass problem, but reveals the “intermediate”, but rather the more important, issues of conflict resolution.

The signing of the FS is a technical step in order to unblock the Norman format (possibly with the prospect of expansion at the expense of the USA and Great Britain) and begin to solve a complex of problems. And their resolution will be very difficult.

On October 1, Kiev transferred the “Steinmeier formula” from the category of the Russian variable to the category of the Ukrainian constant.

And this is only the first action in the long equation of diplomacy in order to ultimately receive the cherished “= overpower”.

Post Author: Intercourier

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