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Russia seeks to blow up Central Asia to become China’s exclusive geopolitical partner. Kyrgyzstan in the blasting Kremlin game is just the beginning of a major party to loosen stability in the countries of potential participants in the Chinese mega-project “One Belt – One Way”.
One of the top topics in the international policy of the current week was the acute domestic political confrontation in Kyrgyzstan. The conflict took place between former President of the Republic Almazbek Atambayev and the current authorities of the republic. Earlier, it was thought that the country’s new leader, Sooronbai Zheenbekov, who came to power in 2017, would continue the case of Atambayev, and would retain his integrity.
But the situation turned otherwise. Conflicts have begun between the former and incumbent presidents of the country, and Zheenbekov has decided to suspend Atambayev.
In May 2019, a law was passed allowing former presidents to be prosecuted, and in July, Jogorku Konesh, the Kyrgyz parliament, deprived Atambayev of his integrity. He is accused of corruption, in particular it is said that he, contrary to the law, freed from custody the former thief in Aziz Batukayev’s law. Hearing fried, Atambayev with a special board from the Russian base of Kanty flew to Moscow, where he was given a personal audience with Putin.
Publicly, the Kremlin dwarf called on the Kyrgyz to “unite around incumbent President Zheenbekov,” but in reality the opposite happened. Upon his return to his homeland, Atambayev barricaded himself in his home village of Koi-Tash, where he armed his supporters and launched a defense. He also negotiated with representatives of the northern clans for their support in confrontation with the central government.
Atambayev, on his return from Moscow, seems to have begun to work out a scenario of launching a confrontation between the northern and southern Kyrgyz clans, whose relations have always been very strained. It is known that inter-clan conflicts led to two revolutions in the country – “tulip” in 2005 and “watermelon” in 2010.
The Russian media have already started to disperse the thesis of the “third Kyrgyz revolution” in the light of the confrontation between Zheenbekov and Atambayev. The situation has escalated so much that special troops have been sent to Ko-Tash to bring a barricaded ex-president to court.
Although Atambayev did not get any support from Atambaev, he could not fight, the confrontation in his native village became bloody. As a result of two attempts to storm a house by a special forces, one employee of the local Alpha, Usen Niyazbekov, was killed and dozens were injured. Many participants in the conflict have gunshot wounds. The first special operation, which unfolded on the evening of August 7 and the night of August 8, ended in failure. Fighters of special-purpose units of the State Committee on National Security (SCNB) have faced fierce resistance by supporters of Atambayev at the territory of the residence. The second assault began on the evening of August 8. Special forces first surrounded the house and forced a large part of the defenders out of the residence. Later, information was received that Atambayev surrendered to security forces and was taken to the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Bishkek, and later transferred to the State Security Service. Upon completion of the special operation, hundreds of police officers were forced to return to the capital on foot. They created obstacles for Atambayev’s supporters. Later in Bishkek, security forces dispersed a rally in support of it. At present the situation in Bishkek and the regions of the republic has stabilized.
Against this background, a very high resonance in the Russian media caused a sensational speech by the head of the SVR of the Russian Federation Sergey Naryshkin on the situation in Kyrgyzstan. He said with a rather excited look and a shaky voice, that the conflict in Kyrgyzstan was very dangerous. The fact that people are killed during the assault is very sad for the country, for the people of Kyrgyzstan, and Russia is very worried about the fate of the “brotherly for her people”. Naryshkin called on the parties to the conflict to restrain themselves.
Here are just Russia’s true intentions for rocking the Kyrgyz situation, which are completely different. Moscow’s strategic task is to destabilize this and other independent Central Asian republics in order to completely close China. It is about Beijing developing its global project “One Belt – One Way” to Europe via Russia. Whereas Asian countries are unsuitable for this purpose because of political challenges and economic instability.
Russian propagandists have called Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan non-paying countries with unstable political systems that await the “Central Asian Spring.” In a publication dated July 27, 2019, Grigory Lukyanov, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, Department of Political Science, Higher School of Economics, at the Tsargrad TV portal, categorically names Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan as the least stable countries in the region! Here is his direct speech regarding the Kyrgyz Republic: “I would put Kyrgyzstan last among the countries in the region in terms of stability. Even though he is distant from Afghanistan and has no common border with him, he has many unresolved disputes with his neighbors. There is a problem of huge Uzbek population, weakness of state institutions, lack of experience of effective management, huge dependence on neighbors and foreign aid. Under these conditions, various types of religious extremism thrive… ”.
It is noteworthy that in the West Kyrgyzstan is considered to be almost the only democracy in Central Asia. But Grigory Lukyanov noted that “democracy does not guarantee stability”, recalling that the most terrible genocides occurred just in democratic countries such as Rwanda.
And less than a week later, Kyrgyzstan is covered by events with a confrontation in Kochi-Tosh, which some Russian media say is almost a harbinger of civil war in the country. In general, everything is as predicted by the Russian “expert” Lukyanov.
It is noteworthy that after the meeting of President of Kyrgyzstan Zheenbekov with a member of the State Council of China, Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi in May 2019 already in June 2019 in Bishkek was held the Kyrgyz-Chinese business forum. The dialogue took place in a friendly environment. In total, 24 documents worth $ 7.5 billion were signed following the forum! The funds will be directed to the development of mining, agro-industrial, educational, construction industries, education, social housing. This means that Beijing has made a strategic bet on Kyrgyzstan in the implementation of the One Belt – One Way project.
Moscow’s reaction followed a month and a half later, and expressed its desire to use ex-President Atambayev to ignite an internecine clan war in Kyrgyzstan.
Also in the context of the chaos of Central Asia, it is worth mentioning the information hysteria surrounding the “disappearance” of Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. Since July 20, Russian propaganda has been forming a negative background around him, emphasizing that something has happened to the president. There are reports that he died of kidney failure on July 20 (there were rumors that he had been poisoned by Russian special services) Videos with him on Turkmen TV appear unconvincing. And now Moscow is looking forward to the Caspian Economic Forum in Avaz, which will start on August 11, where the Turkmen leader is scheduled to meet with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev. If Berdymukhamedov does not appear there, then we should expect a new information round around this problematic topic, which could lead to destabilization of Turkmenistan. Again, it is very beneficial for Moscow to advance the “Russian alternative” in the global Chinese geostrategic project. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan stand in line for their portions of chaos from the Kremlin.
If the Russian special services fail to chaotize Central Asia, then it will lose value for China and will remain in the margins of the international arena. This will mean the collapse of the Putin regime, which, for its own sake, is fueling conflicts in different parts of the world, in Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, and now Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan.
And if the Kremlin’s plans do not materialize, then Naryshkin will not have to cry, but simply not to take his head off, as well as many other supporters of Putin’s criminal clique.