The role of the intelligence and outright lies in establishing the cause of the crash
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Large-scale disasters have always been the object of attention of both governments involved countries and the world community.
Empowered rarely come to a consensus on the causes of the disaster, still less to establish the perpetrators. And if it happened through the fault of the military of another state – never!
The history of civil aviation, unfortunately, is rich in tragic incidents, the cause of which was a malfunction in the operation of military equipment, or a mistake made by a fighter pilot or missile system operator. Responsible for this are appointed, but the culprits are not found.
Each tragedy becomes the subject of research by specialists, the central theme of news, stories for books and documentaries.
In fact, establishing the true causes of the crash of airliners does not require large expenditures and time in the era of technological progress and space exploration.
Today, collecting and summarizing satellite images and radio interception data takes minutes. Only this information is used in different ways, depending on the will of their owners and political expediency.
On September 1, 1983, a Korean Air Lines Boeing 747 flew KE007 on the New York-Anchorage-Seoul route and was shot down by a Soviet Su-15 fighter near Sakhalin. A plane struck by a rocket at almost supersonic speed fell into the Laperouse Strait and collapsed when it hit a water. Then 269 people died.
Only on September 3, TASS reported a disaster. The original version was that the plane violated the air border, left the airspace, and then disappeared from the radar screens. The Kremlin acknowledged the destruction of the Korean Boeing on September 9th. He added that the violation of the country’s airspace was a planned reconnaissance action, the airliner was accompanied by the American Boeing RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft and their movement was strictly synchronized with the flight of the Ferret-D reconnaissance satellite. Copies of Korean Boeing’s flight recorders were handed over to the ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization 10 years later (!).
On July 17, 2014, a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 operated flight MH17 on the Amsterdam – Kuala Lumpur route and was shot down in the sky above Donbass by the Buk M1 anti-aircraft missile system. The wreckage of the aircraft was scattered over 15 km². The 298 people were killed.
The JIT investigation team concluded that the Russian help to the puppet “DPR” went far beyond political and financial support, and included active military subsidies. This indicates the alleged participation of senior Russian officials in the deployment of Buk air defense systems in the occupied territory. Based on records of intercepted conversations between Russian officials and militias, JIT determined that Buk belongs to the 53rd anti-aircraft missile defense brigade of the Russian armed forces. In May 2018, the Netherlands and Australia officially accused Russia of involvement in the death of flight MH17. And in June 2019, JIT announced the names of four disaster suspects.
The Russian leadership still denies involvement in the attack at all levels.
On January 8, 2020, a Boeing 737-8KV of Ukraine International Airlines operated a PS752 flight on the Tehran-Kiev route and was shot down shortly after take-off by the Tor M1 anti-aircraft missile system, owned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Forces. The 176 people were killed.
Three days later, Tehran admitted that the plane was shot down by them as a result of a “human error”, due to the expectation of a US strike on strategic targets in response to ballistic missile firing at US military bases in Iraq, and also because the Torah were integrated into Iran’s air defense system.
Despite the general similarity, these disasters have a fundamental difference.
In 1983, then US President Ronald Reagan called the destruction of the Korean aircraft a “crime against humanity”, directly blamed Moscow for the death of the liner, and US representative to the UN Gene Kilpatrick presented intelligence to the organization’s Security Council meeting.
By analogy, events developed with the Ukrainian plane. Only this time, the White House refrained from categorical statements, given the heated American-Iranian relations amid the elimination of General Kassem Suleimani and the reluctance to initiate a new Middle East war. Washington delegated the process of “declassification” to the world media and allies in the Anglo-Sphere.
As a result, on January 10, almost simultaneously, the American Newsweek, CBS, CNN, citing sources in the Pentagon and the CIA, reported that the Tehran-Kiev Ukrainian flight was unintentionally shot down by an Iranian anti-aircraft missile. According to the “leak” of information, the American satellite recorded infrared “flashes” of two 9M33 missile launches, after which another one followed – already the plane’s defeat. Calculation of air defense systems identified the liner as an enemy, carried out the capture of the target and hit it.
At the same time, Canadian Prime Ministers Justin Trudeau, Great Britain Boris Johnson and Australia Scott Morrison made similar statements. Donald Trump himself modestly declared that he did not believe in the version of the technical malfunction of the UIA aircraft.
With the Malaysian Boeing, shot down over the Donbass, the situation is completely different.
It is known that on the day of the disaster, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Barack Obama, which, by “incredible” coincidence, was ordered a couple of days before.
During the conversation, Putin said that the airliner was shot down, most likely, by a Ukrainian fighter. Upon learning that there was only one American on board, the then White House owner agreed not to make official statements, and to give intelligence information about the causes and perpetrators in a dosed and uncertain manner until Moscow finishes its investigation and sends primary results to Washington to “clarify” common position. “
John Schindler, a former analyst with the NSA, claims that Obama already had exhaustive information on the Malaysian Boeing the next day — satellite images, Buka motion pictures, SIGINT audio intelligence, and expert conclusions about the air defense system’s belonging to the 53rd anti-aircraft the Russian Armed Forces Air Defense Missile Brigade, which was brought into the occupied territories without command and control radar.
We can say that from this day on, intelligence data has become the subject of political bargaining, a bargaining chip in the geopolitical game, an ace in the sleeve, which cannot be shown.
A similar position was taken by Donald Trump. Having come to power and speaking at international venues and the Congress, he talked a lot about sanctions against North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela, but in every possible way avoided the topic of Russia, and its decisive role in the crash of the Malaysian Boeing.
All this gave Moscow the opportunity to cover the investigation of the tragedy with a thick layer of lies and misinformation, to produce eight (!) Versions, none of which even have a hint of truth. This gave the Kremlin the audacity to continue to play behind-the-scenes geopolitical game and bidding on blood, undermine the credibility of the UN and the JIT investigation team established by its resolution to investigate the causes of the tragedy. This gave the pro-Russian media the right to openly mock the established facts for five and a half years. This gave the Russian special services the opportunity to use the leadership of Malaysia as a “devil’s advocate.” It gave a lot of things …
In other words, Russia got the opportunity to use at full capacity its fecal-propaganda arsenal, which has no analogues in the world.
It is known that the data of the American intelligence community were transferred to JIT, but without the right to make them public. In addition, during the work, investigators of the group established involvement in the attack more than a hundred people. They collected enough evidence for the organizers, performers, assistants, with names, positions, ranks and the role of everyone in the destruction of the airliner. Some of the materials have already been submitted to the Hague District Court along with indictments.
In November last year, the Netherlands published new facts, including the direct involvement of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov in coordinating the actions of separatists in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, the investigation team turned to possible witnesses with a request to share new information about the leadership and sources of financing of the “DPR”, as well as those who gave orders to kill the aircraft.
The other day, The Hague District Court said that one of the suspects in the case expressed a desire to testify at the trial and wants to be represented in court by a Dutch law firm.
If this witness is from the Russian side, then you won’t have to rely on the veracity of his testimonies, only on “exclusivity”.
The founder of Billingcat, British Eliot Higgins, claims that despite the severity and peremptory evidence, the Kremlin will continue to refuse to cooperate with the investigation and continue to deny its involvement in the MH17 attack. In this case, Iran’s recognition of its responsibility for the death of flight PS752 will not become an example.
Moreover, on the eve of the Schiphol hearing, Moscow is likely to activate a disinformation campaign.
In addition to the already well-known Dutch politicians from the Forum for Democracy (FvD) party, a wide network of public organizations specially created for this purpose will be raised by alarm. Among them are “Global rights of peaceful people” with branches in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic, Bonanza Media’s Internet platform of the renowned Russian “documentary” Yana Erlashova and many others.
Obviously, the main tactics of the Kremlin will be based on discrediting the evidence gathered by JIT and fabricating alternative versions in which the main responsibility will be transferred to Ukraine.
It is not known how long the open trial will last. It is known that the Schiphol complex is reserved for more than a year – from March 9, 2020 to March 26, 2021.
Let’s hope that 2020 will become the year of the rule of law – customers and performers will receive a worthy assessment of their crimes, and relatives of the victims united by the MN17 Air Crash Fund will receive a belated psychological release in the form of a verdict of guilty.
Putin’s stretch marks around the world should start to work. And against himself.